Special Elections are Undemocratic: Please Vote Nov 4th!
- Shiloh
- 6 hours ago
- 5 min read
When Santa Clara County’s democratically elected Assessor, Larry Stone, announced he was retiring early, I was a tad bit irritated for a number of reasons. For starters, his resignation triggered an unplanned election in an off year, the cost estimate being $13 million.
But that’s not the only reason to be irritated. Few people show up for special elections and those that do are wealthier. And for an assessors race? Who on earth cares or knows enough about that role to prioritize casting a ballot? Only a small subset of the voting population would end up deciding this obscure but important role, a role that has a sizable impact on the property tax revenues that fund government. Yikes!
If you believe that high voter turnout is a must for a healthy democracy, special elections are problematic. We have one coming up. And we just had one to elect the Downtown councilmember in San Jose (D3). What did we learn from the D3 special and what can we do to boost turnout in special elections?
In this blog I’ll do three things:
1. A deep dive on the D3 turnout numbers to solidify what we already know, and highlight some interesting details about specific neighborhoods.
2. Touch on what we know about why turnout for specials is low.
3. Highlight what we can do about it given that we have a very important special election on November 4th. (Vote yes on Measure A and Proposition 50, BTW).
A Case Study: Downtown San Jose’s Special Election for District 3
The special election for District 3 is a great case study to understand voter turnout in a special election. There, the overall number of people who voted was 8,300. For the previous election of the seat, which was not a special, the number was 17,770. That’s a 53% drop-off.
Okay so we already know that fewer people vote in special elections but what kind of percentage decreases can we anticipate across neighborhoods and are there characteristics of those neighborhoods that help us understand who, in a special election, is selecting our representatives.
The details are in the chart above but here’s the summary. The rate of drop off between neighborhoods is much higher in poorer, renter dense neighborhoods. In the chart, you can see in the wealthy area of the district known as Naglee Park, 58% of voters voted in 2025. That dropped to 35% in the 2022 special, a 40% decrease. Those are pretty unimpressive turnout numbers to begin with. However, when compared to the Olinder area, an area akin to the quintessential “other side of the tracks” or in this case, the Guadalupe River, the drop off in voting was 66%.
Drop off was highest in the area south of SJSU. One might call that a bit more of an anomaly since it likely has a lot of students who might not have been around during the election given that school didn't start until August. (I'm theorizing here.)
Taking a step back, for those familiar with downtown neighborhoods, we recognize that the areas that had a larger drop off in voting between a normal election and a special are those that are more renter-dense and poorer.
Conclusion: In the D3 race, very few people voted and of the few that cast a ballot, they likely were in a higher income bracket using neighborhood as a proxy for wealth. D3 shows that special elections, if you believe that high voter turnout is important, are problematic.
Why is turnout lower in a special?
First, we should do our best to avoid special elections. And if we have one, in particular to replace an elected official, operate based on guardrails that depoliticize the appointment process. That said, there are times when a special election might not be avoidable. So, what to do?
While I’m not an expert, the research I’ve learned from says a couple things.
A few years back, the City of San Jose voted to switch the Mayoral election timing from the gubernatorial election cycle to the presidential. The arguments:
Support: The role is so important, we should make sure we elect a mayor when lots of people are already going to the polls, which is during a presidential election.
Opposed: The argument on the other side said that they didn’t want the SJ Mayoral election getting overshadowed by presidential elections.
At the time, a professor from SJSU named Garrick Percival, did a fantastic job highlighting the research and data to answer this question. The summary of what he said is this: People vote when they know there is an election. They know there is an election when there is a lot of election noise, as is the case with a presidential.
It’s really that simple. (Okay, I'm overgeneralizing but this is a key component). The more going on in an election, the more people will hear about it, and the more likely they are to vote. In a presidential, there likely will be much more advertising, and therefore, people will vote, even on down ballot races. Once you’re casting your ballot, you’ll vote on most of it.
(Anecdotally, I can say this is true. As I knocked on doors for the D3 special election, I encountered plenty of folks who had no idea there was an election coming up. Would they know there was an election if it was the presidential cycle. Probably.)
Who do you know that doesn’t know there’s an election?
I write this because we have a special election on November 4th, initially triggered by Larry’s decision not to complete his term. Since that time, two more issues have been placed on the ballot, the County’s Measure A and the State’s Proposition 50. I’m voting yes on both and it is critical that they both pass.
If you’re reading this, you’re likely already a highly engaged voter. You’re gonna vote. But you have friends, neighbors, colleagues who might not.
So be that election noise-maker.
Do you have a dog owner meetup at the park? Would it be that painful to mention the election? Have you ever knocked on doors in your neighborhood to educate people about an upcoming election? This, by the way, has the ripple effect of building community amongst your neighbors. What about your fellow parents that you hang out with while the kids are playing at the park, or your crossfit buddies? Are they all up to speed on the upcoming election?
Talk about the election and encourage people to vote. Direct people to good sources of information and be a resource. I’ve listed some of those resources below.
On November 4th, California and the County have an opportunity to fix the damage that the federal administration is doing to our safety net services and to our democracy. This one is important. Let’s help make sure the voices that determine our future are truly representative of this great state.
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